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EUR/USD: Back above 200-week MA ahead of Draghi speech

  • The EUR/USD has faded the drop below the 200-week moving average (MA).
  • The recovery could be extended further to 1.14 if ECB's Draghi reaffirms commitment to end the QE program in December.
  • Brexit chaos and the resulting action in the EUR/GBP could also influence the EUR/USD.
The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1335, having printed a low of 1.1215 earlier this week.

The move back above the 200-week MA of 1.1308 could embolden the bulls as the long-term moving average had put a floor under the pair in the last two weeks. Further, the MA had reversed pullback in August.

A move higher to 1.14, however, depends on what the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi says during the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, scheduled at 08:30 GMT.

The common currency could pick up a strong bid if Draghi downplays Italy's budget crisis and reaffirms plans to end the QE program. Further, GBP/USD is likely to report losses, as indicated by the rising demand for Sterling puts. The resulting uptick in the EUR/GBP cross could also add to the bullish tone around the EUR/USD.

The pair, however, may fall back below the 200-week MA if Draghi sounds cautious, forcing markets to price-in a delay in the rate hike, currently seen happening at the end of 2019.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1336
    Daily change: 4.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0353%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466