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EUR/USD: Probing key hurdle on broad-based USD weakness

  • Broad-based USD weakness pushed EUR/USD higher to the confluence of symmetrical triangle hurdle and 55-day moving average (MA).
  • The key hurdle would be breached if the US-German (DE) yield differentials continue to slide.
  • A bull breakout, if confirmed, could be followed by a sustained move above 1.15.
The EUR/USD pair could cross the key technical resistance 1.1435 in Europe, having rallied 0.4 percent in Asia.

Friday's non-farm payrolls release and a below-forecast China import and export growth figure released over the weekend likely bolstered the fears of a global growth slowdown and prospects of Fed rate pause in 2019. As a result, Asian desks offered the greenback across the board.

Notably, the dollar sell-off is likely to continue in Europe, as the dovish turn in Fed expectations could push the 10-year US-German yield differentials to new multi-month lows. As of now, the 10-year yield spread stands at 259 basis points -  a level last seen on Sept. 28.

So, the critical resistance at 1.1435 -  a level which marks the confluence of the 55-day MA and the trendline connecting the Nov. 11 and Nov. 20 high (upper edge of the symmetrical triangle) - could be scaled in Europe.

A daily close above 1.1435 would confirm a triangle breakout and allow a sustained move above 1.15. The bull breakout, however, may remain elusive if the treasury yields turn higher.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1427
    Today Daily change: 16 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.140%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1411
Trends:
    Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1353
    Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1417
    Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1515
    Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1742
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1424
    Previous Daily Low: 1.136
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1424
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1311
    Previous Monthly High: 1.15
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1216
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.14
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1385
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1373
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1335
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.131
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1437
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1462
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.15