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EUR/USD takes out key hurdle ahead of US GDP

  • EUR/USD closed above the 55-day EMA yesterday, confirming a bull breakout.
  • Political turmoil in Washington will likely keep the USD on the backfoot.
  • The pair will likely scale the immediate hurdle of 100-day EMA if the US GDP and core PCE disappoints expectations.
The EUR/USD closed above the 55-day exponential moving average (EMA) yesterday, confirming a bullish-to-bearish trend change.

The EMA caught highs on a closing basis in October, November and earlier this month. Hence, the EUR bulls may be feeling emboldened. 

Turmoil in Washington likely to keep USD under pressure

The House Republicans have approved $5 billion for Trump's wall. Democrats, however, have the Senate votes to block any bill that includes funding for Trump’s wall and more importantly, Trump isn't open to compromise. So, the probability of government shutdown is high.

The European FX desks, therefore, may continue to offer the US dollar ahead of the key data releases in the US.

Focus on GDP and core PCE

Markets never believed Fed's hawkish dot plot of September, which predicted three rate hikes in 2019. The central bank now plans to raise rates only two times next year. The markets aren't buying that either.

Moreover, their belief that the US central bank would pause rate hikes in 2019 would be reinforced if the US third-quarter GDP is revised lower from the preliminary estimate of 3.5 percent. A below-forecast core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) - Fed's preferred measure of inflation - would also cement expectations of a rate hike pause in 2019, leading to a broad-based USD sell-off.

EUR/USD, however, may find it hard to scale the 100-day EMA of 1.1486 if the US data better estimates and the political tensions in Washington subside.

Technical Levels

Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1444
    Today Daily change: -16 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.140%
    Today Daily Open: 1.146
Trends:
    Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1356
    Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1388
    Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1487
    Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1698
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1486
    Previous Daily Low: 1.136
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1444
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1269
    Previous Monthly High: 1.15
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1216
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1438
    Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1409
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1385
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.131
    Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1259
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1511
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1562
    Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1637