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EUR/USD: January lows exposed on falling German yields and bearish close below 200-week MA

  • EUR/USD fell for the first day straight on Friday and closed below the important 200-week moving average (MA) support. 
  • On Friday, the 10-year bund yield fell to lowest level since October 2016 and could slide even further on German growth concerns. 
  • EUR/USD risks falling to January lows near 1.1290 today. 
The EUR/USD pair could extend its five-day losing streak with a drop to the January low of 1.1289, courtesy of falling German bond yields and a bearish weekly close. 

The yield on the 10-year German bund fell to 0.07 percent on Friday - the lowest level since the end of October 2016 - and could slide further toward zero levels on growth concerns. 

Last week, the European Commission revised lower its 2019 German growth forecast to 1.1 percent from a previous forecast of 1.8 percent, triggering fears of a recession in the Eurozone's largest economy of the world. 

Add to that, Friday's close below the crucial 200-week moving average (MA) support and the path of least resistance appears to be on the downside.

The pair could find acceptance below 1.1289 today if the US Q4 unit-labor costs, scheduled for release in the American session, blow past expectations, forcing markets to reassess the Fed's recent dovish turn. 

The outlook on EUR/USD, however, would turn bullish if the German and Eurozone first quarter GDP, scheduled for release this Thursday, beats estimates, putting recession fears to rest.